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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Michihiro Omigawa won · U-DEC R3
Elo1352
Elo1490

Michihiro OmigawavsJason YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Michihiro Omigawa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichihiro Omigawa: Submission grapplervsJason Young: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jason Young wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Michihiro Omigawa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Young at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michihiro Omigawa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Michihiro Omigawa has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jason Young has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michihiro Omigawa
Red Corner
VS
Jason Young
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1352
Elo
1490
50
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michihiro OmigawaL4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Chad Mendes · Feb 11
L
vs Darren Elkins · Jun 11
L
vs Iuri Alcantara · Jan 12
L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 12
latest
Jason Young
oldest →
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jun 11
W
vs Eric Wisely · Apr 12
L
KOvs Robert Peralta · Sep 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michihiro OmigawaMetricJason Young
2.01
Strikes / min
2.97
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
64%
Strike defense
50%
1.19
TDs / 15 min
1.98
49%
Takedown defense
55%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.05evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1469 vs 1485Strikes31.8 vs 57.0Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.25 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Michihiro OmigawaJason Young

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Michihiro Omigawa(5 fights)Jason Young(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.6|Blue +138.6
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michihiro OmigawaTargetJason Young

By target zone

20
38% acc · 80%
Head
23
23% acc · 72%
2
67% acc · 8%
Body
3
60% acc · 9%
3
100% acc · 12%
Leg
6
67% acc · 19%

By position

8
24% acc · 32%
Distance
24
25% acc · 75%
5
71% acc · 20%
Clinch
7
47% acc · 22%
12
67% acc · 48%
Ground
1
33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Michihiro Omigawa rounds
1
even
1
Jason Young rounds
Round 1Jason Young edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:53
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Michihiro Omigawa edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control3:46
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:31
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:23Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 59
Sig Strikes
32 / 115
41.3%
Sig Str %
27.3%
56 / 94
Total Strikes
40 / 123
4 / 10
TDs
2 / 3
51%
TD %
75%
3
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
8:10
Ctrl Time
0:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Young15 / 5315 / 531 / 10
1Michihiro Omigawa9 / 2219 / 331 / 51
2Jason Young6 / 2311 / 280 / 00
2Michihiro Omigawa11 / 2016 / 262 / 20
3Jason Young11 / 3914 / 421 / 20
3Michihiro Omigawa5 / 1721 / 351 / 32

Michihiro Omigawa

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Jason Young

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4