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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Michelle Waterson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Elo1426
Felice Herrig

Michelle WatersonvsFelice HerrigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michelle Waterson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Felice Herrig wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felice Herrig at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Felice Herrig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Waterson
Red Corner
VS
Felice Herrig
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1493
Elo
1426
32
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
157.48 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest
Felice HerrigL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Justine Kish · Jun 17
W
vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17
L
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20
L
SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle WatersonMetricFelice Herrig
—
Strikes / min
3.84
—
Strikes absorbed / min
5.19
—
Strike defense
48%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.08
—
Takedown defense
75%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1544Strikes39.6 vs 45.4Takedowns2.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.86Form0.1 vs 0.3
Michelle WatersonFelice Herrig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Michelle Waterson(10 fights)Felice Herrig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +66.9|Blue -66.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3

Felice Herrig

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights10