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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Michelle Waterson won · S-DEC R3
Elo1493
Elo1495
Cortney Casey

Michelle WatersonvsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Michelle Waterson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michelle Waterson wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michelle Waterson at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cortney Casey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Waterson
Red Corner
VS
Cortney Casey
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
1493
Elo
1495
32
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'7"
157.48 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest
Cortney Casey
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20
L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20
L
vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21
W
vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21
L
vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle WatersonMetricCortney Casey
—
Strikes / min
4.29
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.00
—
Strike defense
55%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.39
—
Takedown defense
39%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1488Strikes34.3 vs 55.9Takedowns1.8 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.50 vs 0.14Form-0.5 vs -0.1
Michelle WatersonCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Michelle Waterson(10 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15