Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Luana Pinheiro won · S-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1476

Michelle Waterson-GomezvsLuana PinheiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Luana Pinheiro won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichelle Waterson-Gomez: Well-roundedvsLuana Pinheiro: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Luana Pinheiro wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Luana Pinheiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Pinheiro at -156 American odds

+$64 profit

$164 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luana Pinheiro enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Luana Pinheiro has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Red Corner

Luana Pinheiro

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-156

(61%)

1481

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

157.48 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Waterson-GomezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 22

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · Sep 23

vs Gillian Robertson · Jun 24

latest

Luana PinheiroL4 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Nov 21

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Nov 23

SUBvs Angela Hill · May 24

vs Gillian Robertson · Nov 24

vs Tecia Pennington · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle Waterson-GomezMetricLuana Pinheiro

3.42

Strikes / min

3.29

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.06

48%

Strike defense

60%

1.39

TDs / 15 min

2.33

69%

Takedown defense

71%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83evenly matched on net striking-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michelle Waterson-GomezLuana Pinheiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michelle Waterson-Gomez(4 fights)Luana Pinheiro(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michelle Waterson-GomezTargetLuana Pinheiro

By target zone

16% acc · 30%

Head

20% acc · 36%

47% acc · 26%

Body

71% acc · 34%

68% acc · 44%

Leg

59% acc · 30%

By position

30% acc · 87%

Distance

35% acc · 86%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

46% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez rounds

even

Luana Pinheiro rounds

Round 1Michelle Waterson-Gomez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Michelle Waterson-Gomez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:01

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 188

Sig Strikes

44 / 122

32%

Sig Str %

35.3%

70 / 199

Total Strikes

48 / 132

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 5

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luana Pinheiro	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0
1	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	20 / 67	20 / 67	0 / 0
2	Luana Pinheiro	19 / 50	20 / 55	0 / 2
2	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	19 / 62	22 / 65	0 / 0
3	Luana Pinheiro	10 / 29	13 / 34	0 / 3
3	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	22 / 59	28 / 67	1 / 2

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4

Luana Pinheiro

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7