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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Gillian Robertson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Michelle Waterson-GomezvsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichelle Waterson-Gomez: Well-roundedvsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gillian Robertson wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gillian Robertson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Red Corner

Gillian Robertson

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1481

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

157.48 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Waterson-GomezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 22

vs Luana Pinheiro · Apr 23

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · Sep 23

latest

Gillian RobertsonW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Jun 23

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle Waterson-GomezMetricGillian Robertson

3.42

Strikes / min

2.71

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

48%

Strike defense

56%

1.39

TDs / 15 min

2.76

69%

Takedown defense

38%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michelle Waterson-GomezGillian Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michelle Waterson-Gomez(4 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michelle Waterson-GomezTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

40% acc · 90%

Head

71% acc · 87%

33% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

24% acc · 43%

Distance

42% acc · 13%

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

82% acc · 43%

Ground

83% acc · 87%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez rounds

even

Gillian Robertson rounds

Round 1Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:49Control

Round 3Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:19

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 52

Sig Strikes

77 / 105

53.7%

Sig Str %

74.3%

41 / 75

Total Strikes

122 / 156

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

12:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gillian Robertson	27 / 43	36 / 53	1 / 3	0
1	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	11 / 37	15 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Gillian Robertson	27 / 31	48 / 53	1 / 3	1
2	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	4 / 6	13 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Gillian Robertson	23 / 31	38 / 50	0 / 0	1
3	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	6 / 9	13 / 17	1 / 1	0

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20