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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Lemos won · SUB R2

Elo1481

Elo1488

Michelle Waterson-GomezvsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:48

Style matchupMichelle Waterson-Gomez: Well-roundedvsAmanda Lemos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Amanda Lemos wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Lemos at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Red Corner

Amanda Lemos

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-315

(76%)

1481

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Waterson-GomezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Luana Pinheiro · Apr 23

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · Sep 23

vs Gillian Robertson · Jun 24

latest

Amanda LemosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25

vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle Waterson-GomezMetricAmanda Lemos

3.42

Strikes / min

2.75

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

48%

Strike defense

45%

1.39

TDs / 15 min

1.02

69%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michelle Waterson-GomezAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michelle Waterson-Gomez(4 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.1|Blue +7.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michelle Waterson-GomezTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

29% acc · 24%

Head

48% acc · 55%

70% acc · 24%

Body

60% acc · 15%

68% acc · 52%

Leg

86% acc · 30%

By position

50% acc · 93%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez rounds

even

Amanda Lemos rounds

Round 1Michelle Waterson-Gomez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:53

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Michelle Waterson-Gomez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:15

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 56

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

54.5%

Sig Str %

57%

35 / 62

Total Strikes

20 / 35

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Lemos	13 / 23	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	16 / 36	22 / 42	1 / 1	0
2	Amanda Lemos	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	1
2	Michelle Waterson-Gomez	13 / 20	13 / 20	0 / 1	0

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15