Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michelle Montague won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1500

Michelle MontaguevsLuana CarolinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Michelle Montague won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichelle Montague: WrestlervsLuana Carolina: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Luana Carolina wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Michelle Montague wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Carolina at +176 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Carolina enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Luana Carolina has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luana Carolina has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michelle Montague (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michelle Montague

Red Corner

Luana Carolina

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1533

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michelle Montague

oldest →

DECvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Apr 26

latest

Luana CarolinaW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Molly McCann · Mar 22

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 23

vs Ivana Petrovic · Jul 23

KOvs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 24

vs Lucie Pudilova · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michelle MontagueMetricLuana Carolina

2.77

Strikes / min

4.65

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

41%

Strike defense

51%

3.50

TDs / 15 min

0.30

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michelle MontagueLuana Carolina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michelle Montague(2 fights)Luana Carolina(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.1|Blue -33.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michelle MontagueTargetLuana Carolina

By target zone

44% acc · 83%

Head

52% acc · 65%

67% acc · 15%

Body

83% acc · 10%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

75% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 29%

Distance

60% acc · 96%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

55% acc · 68%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michelle Montague rounds

even

Luana Carolina rounds

Round 1Luana Carolina edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:44

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michelle Montague edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control3:42

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michelle Montague edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:17

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 88

Sig Strikes

48 / 82

47.3%

Sig Str %

56%

99 / 164

Total Strikes

75 / 115

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luana Carolina	24 / 36	39 / 52	0 / 0	1
1	Michelle Montague	10 / 32	25 / 56	1 / 2	0
2	Luana Carolina	15 / 25	22 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Michelle Montague	17 / 32	38 / 55	2 / 3	0
3	Luana Carolina	9 / 21	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Michelle Montague	14 / 24	36 / 53	2 / 2	0

Michelle Montague

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Luana Carolina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights10