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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · SUB R3

Elo1403

Elo1491

Michel PrazeresvsMads BurnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Saturday, September 2, 2017Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:26

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsMads Burnell: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(84.1%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Prazeres has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Mads Burnell

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1403

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Mads Burnell

oldest →

vs Mike Santiago · Jan 18

SUBvs Arnold Allen · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricMads Burnell

2.38

Strikes / min

1.28

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

57%

Strike defense

51%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

3.45

47%

Takedown defense

22%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresMads Burnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Mads Burnell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.9|Blue +87.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetMads Burnell

By target zone

55% acc · 81%

Head

19% acc · 40%

50% acc · 19%

Body

63% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 42%

Distance

30% acc · 80%

80% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

92% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Mads Burnell rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control4:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:50

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:46

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 48

Sig Strikes

10 / 30

50.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

43 / 69

Total Strikes

12 / 32

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:49

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mads Burnell	1 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Prazeres	8 / 13	15 / 23	2 / 3	0
2	Mads Burnell	7 / 16	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Prazeres	15 / 25	25 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Mads Burnell	2 / 13	2 / 13	0 / 0	0
3	Michel Prazeres	3 / 10	3 / 10	1 / 2	1

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Mads Burnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3