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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1403

Elo1466

Michel PrazeresvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Lee has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1403

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricKevin Lee

2.38

Strikes / min

3.88

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

57%

Strike defense

50%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

3.18

47%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.8|Blue +62.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +188.0|Blue -188.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

33% acc · 79%

Head

33% acc · 68%

67% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 29%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

36% acc · 94%

Distance

29% acc · 55%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

78% acc · 23%

Ground

74% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:21

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:20

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:36

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 89

Sig Strikes

62 / 153

40%

Sig Str %

40.7%

38 / 94

Total Strikes

118 / 217

3 / 9

TDs

4 / 5

25%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:17

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	15 / 56	17 / 58	0 / 1	2
1	Michel Prazeres	14 / 35	14 / 35	1 / 4	0
2	Kevin Lee	16 / 34	49 / 69	2 / 2	0
2	Michel Prazeres	12 / 20	13 / 21	2 / 4	0
3	Kevin Lee	31 / 63	52 / 90	2 / 2	1
3	Michel Prazeres	7 / 34	11 / 38	0 / 1	0

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19