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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · SUB R1

Elo1403

Elo1364

Michel PrazeresvsJoshua BurkmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:42

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsJoshua Burkman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(82.7%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joshua Burkman has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Joshua Burkman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Joshua Burkman

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1403

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Joshua BurkmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs KJ Noons · Feb 16

vs Paul Felder · May 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricJoshua Burkman

2.38

Strikes / min

2.69

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

57%

Strike defense

51%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

2.53

47%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresJoshua Burkman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Joshua Burkman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.2|Blue -39.2

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetJoshua Burkman

By target zone

71% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

57% acc · 17%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

63% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Joshua Burkman rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:11

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 34

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

70%

Sig Str %

100%

34 / 45

Total Strikes

1 / 1

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joshua Burkman	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0
1	Michel Prazeres	24 / 34	34 / 45	2 / 3	1

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8