← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1403

Elo1437

Michel PrazeresvsJesse RonsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Jesse Ronson

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1403

Elo

1437

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Jesse RonsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14

vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14

SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20

SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricJesse Ronson

2.38

Strikes / min

3.54

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

57%

Strike defense

57%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

0.46

47%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresJesse Ronson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.6|Blue +33.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetJesse Ronson

By target zone

42% acc · 84%

Head

33% acc · 39%

33% acc · 5%

Body

71% acc · 26%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 34%

By position

39% acc · 74%

Distance

47% acc · 71%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 16%

Ground

73% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Jesse Ronson rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control4:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control3:10

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jesse Ronson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:06

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 43

Sig Strikes

38 / 73

46.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

50 / 77

Total Strikes

41 / 76

7 / 15

TDs

1 / 1

47.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:37

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jesse Ronson	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0
1	Michel Prazeres	3 / 5	18 / 22	3 / 4
2	Jesse Ronson	14 / 23	14 / 23	0 / 0
2	Michel Prazeres	3 / 8	18 / 23	3 / 7
3	Jesse Ronson	24 / 46	27 / 49	1 / 1
3	Michel Prazeres	13 / 30	14 / 32	1 / 4

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6