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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1403

Elo1359

Michel PrazeresvsJC CottrellUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Prazeres has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
JC Cottrell has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

JC Cottrell

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1403

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

JC Cottrell

oldest →

SUBvs Jason Gonzalez · Jan 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricJC Cottrell

2.38

Strikes / min

0.79

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.75

57%

Strike defense

45%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

0.79

47%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap-1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresJC Cottrell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)JC Cottrell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.0|Blue -44.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetJC Cottrell

By target zone

55% acc · 65%

Head

19% acc · 64%

82% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 7%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 29%

By position

60% acc · 83%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

JC Cottrell rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:32

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns5

Control2:48

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:24

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 77

Sig Strikes

14 / 53

63%

Sig Str %

26.3%

70 / 101

Total Strikes

39 / 78

7 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

46%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:44

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	JC Cottrell	2 / 7	8 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Prazeres	2 / 5	4 / 8	1 / 2	1
2	JC Cottrell	4 / 16	23 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Prazeres	9 / 10	26 / 27	5 / 9	0
3	JC Cottrell	8 / 30	8 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Michel Prazeres	37 / 62	40 / 66	1 / 3	0

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

JC Cottrell

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2