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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ismail Naurdiev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1403

Elo1513

Michel PrazeresvsIsmail NaurdievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Ismail Naurdiev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(84.3%)

Actual result: Ismail Naurdiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at -470 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ismail Naurdiev has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Ismail Naurdiev

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1403

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Prazeres

oldest →

SUBvs Mads Burnell · Sep 17

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricIsmail Naurdiev

2.38

Strikes / min

3.66

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

57%

Strike defense

64%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

1.48

47%

Takedown defense

73%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresIsmail Naurdiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.6|Blue +109.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetIsmail Naurdiev

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

51% acc · 57%

50% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 22%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

76% acc · 21%

By position

37% acc · 73%

Distance

51% acc · 57%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

86% acc · 10%

75% acc · 20%

Ground

81% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:53

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 2Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:24

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 3Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:45

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 35

Sig Strikes

63 / 103

43%

Sig Str %

60.7%

25 / 47

Total Strikes

105 / 157

3 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

24.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:02

Ctrl Time

3:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ismail Naurdiev	19 / 33	27 / 43	0 / 1	1
1	Michel Prazeres	7 / 13	12 / 20	1 / 5	0
2	Ismail Naurdiev	21 / 32	31 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Prazeres	2 / 12	4 / 14	1 / 5	0
3	Ismail Naurdiev	23 / 38	47 / 72	0 / 0	0
3	Michel Prazeres	6 / 10	9 / 13	1 / 3	0

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7