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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1403

Elo1492

Michel PrazeresvsDesmond GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsDesmond Green: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Desmond Green has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Desmond Green has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Desmond Green (53.5%).
Desmond Green has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres

Red Corner

Desmond Green

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1403

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mads Burnell · Sep 17

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Desmond GreenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 17

vs Gleison Tibau · Jun 18

vs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 18

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricDesmond Green

2.38

Strikes / min

3.70

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

57%

Strike defense

69%

3.94

TDs / 15 min

1.62

47%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PrazeresDesmond Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Desmond Green(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.5|Blue +88.5

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetDesmond Green

By target zone

42% acc · 61%

Head

25% acc · 27%

57% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 45%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

90% acc · 27%

By position

33% acc · 47%

Distance

44% acc · 61%

86% acc · 17%

Clinch

81% acc · 39%

93% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Prazeres rounds

even

Desmond Green rounds

Round 1Desmond Green edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:34

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:54

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:28

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 72

Sig Strikes

33 / 61

51.3%

Sig Str %

55%

70 / 106

Total Strikes

50 / 79

3 / 8

TDs

3 / 6

56.7%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:56

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Desmond Green	16 / 25	28 / 37	2 / 2	0
1	Michel Prazeres	9 / 17	14 / 22	1 / 5	0
2	Desmond Green	4 / 7	9 / 13	1 / 3	0
2	Michel Prazeres	10 / 17	21 / 28	1 / 1	3
3	Desmond Green	13 / 29	13 / 29	0 / 1	0
3	Michel Prazeres	17 / 38	35 / 56	1 / 2	0

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Desmond Green

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7