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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michel Prazeres won · SUB R1
Elo1403
Michel Prazeres
Elo1399

Michel PrazeresvsBartosz FabinskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:02

Style matchupMichel Prazeres: WrestlervsBartosz Fabinski: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bartosz Fabinski wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bartosz Fabinski at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bartosz Fabinski has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Bartosz Fabinski has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Prazeres
Red Corner
VS
Bartosz Fabinski
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1403
Elo
1399
45
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
6'0"
170.18 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel PrazeresL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mads Burnell · Sep 17
W
vs Desmond Green · Feb 18
W
vs Zak Cummings · May 18
L
vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21
latest
Bartosz FabinskiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Garreth McLellan · Apr 15
W
vs Hector Urbina · Nov 15
W
vs Emil Meek · Jul 18
L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PrazeresMetricBartosz Fabinski
2.38
Strikes / min
2.23
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
1.46
57%
Strike defense
51%
3.94
TDs / 15 min
7.10
47%
Takedown defense
80%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1614 vs 1554Strikes33.5 vs 33.7Takedowns3.7 vs 7.3Sub Atts0.55 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Michel PrazeresBartosz Fabinski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Michel Prazeres(10 fights)Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.3|Blue -4.3
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PrazeresTargetBartosz Fabinski

By target zone

18
78% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

3
60% acc · 17%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
14
88% acc · 78%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Michel Prazeres rounds
0
even
0
Bartosz Fabinski rounds
Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:48
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 23
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
78%
Sig Str %
20%
26 / 32
Total Strikes
1 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:48
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bartosz Fabinski1 / 51 / 50 / 00
1Michel Prazeres18 / 2326 / 321 / 11

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights14

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6