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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · SUB

Elo1492

Elo1388

Michel PereiravsZelim ImadaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Saturday, September 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

SUB

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Zelim Imadaev

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1492

Elo

1388

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Zelim ImadaevL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Apr 19

KOvs Danny Roberts · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricZelim Imadaev

4.46

Strikes / min

2.91

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

51%

Strike defense

43%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.38

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraZelim Imadaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Zelim Imadaev(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.8|Blue -103.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetZelim Imadaev

By target zone

41% acc · 44%

Head

14% acc · 43%

84% acc · 43%

Body

60% acc · 26%

85% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

57% acc · 93%

Distance

26% acc · 96%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Zelim Imadaev rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:11

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 153

Sig Strikes

23 / 90

56%

Sig Str %

25.7%

88 / 154

Total Strikes

24 / 91

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zelim Imadaev	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Pereira	21 / 39	21 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Zelim Imadaev	10 / 39	10 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Pereira	28 / 53	28 / 53	0 / 0	0
3	Zelim Imadaev	7 / 31	8 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Michel Pereira	39 / 61	39 / 62	1 / 1	1

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Zelim Imadaev

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3