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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tristan Connelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1424

Michel PereiravsTristan ConnellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Tristan Connelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsTristan Connelly: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tristan Connelly wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Tristan Connelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tristan Connelly at +365 American odds

+$365 profit

$465 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michel Pereira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Tristan Connelly

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1492

Elo

1424

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Tristan ConnellyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 21

vs Darren Elkins · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricTristan Connelly

4.46

Strikes / min

3.31

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

51%

Strike defense

50%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.33

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraTristan Connelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Tristan Connelly(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.4|Blue -68.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetTristan Connelly

By target zone

30% acc · 41%

Head

48% acc · 80%

59% acc · 53%

Body

54% acc · 11%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

35% acc · 72%

Distance

32% acc · 36%

100% acc · 28%

Clinch

70% acc · 22%

Ground

79% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Tristan Connelly rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:24

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 2Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:23

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tristan Connelly edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:16

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 75

Sig Strikes

64 / 125

38.7%

Sig Str %

50%

56 / 107

Total Strikes

151 / 222

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 6

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

5:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tristan Connelly	15 / 37	28 / 52	0 / 4	0
1	Michel Pereira	17 / 34	18 / 35	1 / 2	0
2	Tristan Connelly	18 / 44	46 / 73	0 / 1	0
2	Michel Pereira	13 / 34	33 / 59	1 / 2	0
3	Tristan Connelly	31 / 44	77 / 97	0 / 1	1
3	Michel Pereira	2 / 7	5 / 13	0 / 1	0

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Tristan Connelly

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3