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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · SUB R1

Elo1492

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Michel PereiravsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:01

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1492

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

4.46

Strikes / min

5.85

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

51%

Strike defense

59%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.02

75%

Takedown defense

52%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.8|Blue +15.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

56% acc · 45%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 55%

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

69% acc · 82%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:18

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 15

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

73%

Sig Str %

25%

11 / 15

Total Strikes

1 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Pereira	11 / 15	11 / 15	0 / 0	1

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18