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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Daukaus won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Michel Pereira editorial illustration
Elo1502

Michel PereiravsKyle DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Kyle Daukaus won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:43

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsKyle Daukaus: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Kyle Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Daukaus
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1492
Elo
1502
32
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ihor Potieria · May 24
L
KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24
L
vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25
W
vs Zach Reese · Feb 26
L
DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26
latest
Kyle Daukaus
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Feb 22
L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22
W
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25
L
KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricKyle Daukaus
4.46
Strikes / min
3.32
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
51%
Strike defense
42%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
2.08
75%
Takedown defense
82%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1580 vs 1467Strikes4.5 vs 3.3Takedowns1.2 vs 2.1Sub Atts0.70 vs 2.10Form-0.2 vs -0.5
Michel PereiraKyle Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Michel Pereira(10 fights)Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.8|Blue +9.8
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -875.0|Blue +875.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetKyle Daukaus

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
5
63% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 100%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
57% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Michel Pereira rounds
0
even
1
Kyle Daukaus rounds
Round 1Kyle Daukaus edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
5 / 8
50%
Sig Str %
62%
2 / 4
Total Strikes
7 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kyle Daukaus5 / 87 / 120 / 00
1Michel Pereira2 / 42 / 40 / 00

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights16

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8