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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · U-DEC

Elo1492

Elo1512

Michel PereiravsKhaos WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

U-DEC

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsKhaos Williams: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michel Pereira has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Khaos Williams has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Khaos Williams

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · May 24

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Feb 25

vs Andreas Gustafsson · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricKhaos Williams

4.46

Strikes / min

4.94

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

51%

Strike defense

40%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

51%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraKhaos Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Khaos Williams(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetKhaos Williams

By target zone

45% acc · 55%

Head

31% acc · 42%

77% acc · 45%

Body

47% acc · 16%

Leg

68% acc · 42%

By position

49% acc · 75%

Distance

42% acc · 87%

90% acc · 20%

Clinch

54% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Khaos Williams rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:18

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:03

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 79

Sig Strikes

55 / 127

55%

Sig Str %

42.3%

56 / 94

Total Strikes

62 / 134

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khaos Williams	12 / 31	12 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Pereira	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Khaos Williams	22 / 50	28 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Michel Pereira	19 / 32	19 / 32	0 / 0	1
3	Khaos Williams	21 / 46	22 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Michel Pereira	14 / 27	26 / 42	2 / 2	0

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9