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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · SUB R1

Elo1492

Elo1479

Michel PereiravsIhor PotieriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsIhor Potieria: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ihor Potieria (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Ihor Potieria

Blue Corner

-485

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1492

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Ihor PotieriaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · May 23

KOvs Rodolfo Bellato · Dec 23

vs Robert Bryczek · Feb 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Oct 24

KOvs Marco Tulio · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricIhor Potieria

4.46

Strikes / min

4.44

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

51%

Strike defense

50%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.73

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraIhor Potieria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Ihor Potieria(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.6|Blue -12.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetIhor Potieria

By target zone

57% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 33%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Ihor Potieria rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

60%

Sig Str %

66%

6 / 10

Total Strikes

2 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ihor Potieria	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Michel Pereira	6 / 10	6 / 10	0 / 0	1

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Ihor Potieria

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8