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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michel Pereira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1473

Michel PereiravsAndre FialhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichel Pereira: Pressure fightervsAndre Fialho: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Michel Pereira wins(78.3%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Pereira at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fialho enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Michel Pereira

Red Corner

Andre Fialho

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1492

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Andre FialhoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22

KOvs Jake Matthews · Jun 22

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · May 23

KOvs Tim Means · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michel PereiraMetricAndre Fialho

4.46

Strikes / min

3.30

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

6.26

51%

Strike defense

45%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.25

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 3.02 — meaningful gap-2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michel PereiraAndre Fialho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michel Pereira(10 fights)Andre Fialho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.2|Blue -19.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michel PereiraTargetAndre Fialho

By target zone

40% acc · 46%

Head

31% acc · 89%

67% acc · 41%

Body

71% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

51% acc · 90%

Distance

30% acc · 80%

79% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michel Pereira rounds

even

Andre Fialho rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control0:44

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

107 / 202

Sig Strikes

45 / 135

50.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

112 / 209

Total Strikes

48 / 138

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andre Fialho	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0
1	Michel Pereira	17 / 43	17 / 45	0 / 2
2	Andre Fialho	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0
2	Michel Pereira	47 / 81	51 / 85	1 / 1
3	Andre Fialho	17 / 65	20 / 68	0 / 0
3	Michel Pereira	43 / 78	44 / 79	0 / 1

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16

Andre Fialho

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7