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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ovince Saint Preux won · SUB R2

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Elo1497

Michal OleksiejczukvsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Ovince Saint Preux won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:46

Style matchupMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fightervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Ovince Saint Preux wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michal Oleksiejczuk has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ovince Saint Preux has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ovince Saint Preux has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1508

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michal OleksiejczukMetricOvince Saint Preux

5.85

Strikes / min

3.03

4.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

59%

Strike defense

47%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.09

52%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michal OleksiejczukOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.7|Blue -10.7

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michal OleksiejczukTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

39% acc · 62%

Head

14% acc · 36%

72% acc · 35%

Body

75% acc · 64%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 86%

Distance

24% acc · 79%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 21%

60% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:17

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Ovince Saint Preux edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:13

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 78

Sig Strikes

14 / 48

38%

Sig Str %

30%

39 / 80

Total Strikes

20 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ovince Saint Preux	5 / 27	5 / 27	0 / 1	0
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	33 / 59	35 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Ovince Saint Preux	9 / 21	15 / 27	1 / 1	1
2	Michal Oleksiejczuk	4 / 19	4 / 19	0 / 0	0

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28