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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Trizano won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1494

Michael TrizanovsLuis PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Michael Trizano won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Trizano: Well-roundedvsLuis Pena: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Michael Trizano wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Michael Trizano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Trizano at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Trizano has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
Luis Pena has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Trizano

Red Corner

Luis Pena

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1496

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Trizano

oldest →

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 19

vs Ludovit Klein · May 21

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Feb 22

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 22

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Nov 22

latest

Luis Pena

oldest →

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael TrizanoMetricLuis Pena

3.63

Strikes / min

3.66

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.12

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.17

72%

Takedown defense

48%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael TrizanoLuis Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Trizano(7 fights)Luis Pena(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael TrizanoTargetLuis Pena

By target zone

37% acc · 49%

Head

18% acc · 52%

63% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 39%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

44% acc · 73%

Distance

25% acc · 87%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

83% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Trizano rounds

even

Luis Pena rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:25

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Michael Trizano edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:12

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Michael Trizano edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:37

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 100

Sig Strikes

23 / 85

52.7%

Sig Str %

27%

55 / 104

Total Strikes

34 / 97

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 9

50%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

5:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Pena	7 / 31	9 / 33	0 / 3	0
1	Michael Trizano	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 0	1
2	Luis Pena	7 / 25	14 / 33	0 / 3	0
2	Michael Trizano	17 / 36	20 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Luis Pena	9 / 29	11 / 31	1 / 3	0
3	Michael Trizano	23 / 46	24 / 47	1 / 2	0

Michael Trizano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8