← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Almeida won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1479

Michael TrizanovsLucas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lucas Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:55

Style matchupMichael Trizano: Well-roundedvsLucas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lucas Almeida wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Lucas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Almeida at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Trizano has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Trizano

Red Corner

Lucas Almeida

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1496

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Trizano

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Nov 18

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 19

vs Ludovit Klein · May 21

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Feb 22

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Nov 22

latest

Lucas AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23

KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23

vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24

vs Danny Silva · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael TrizanoMetricLucas Almeida

3.63

Strikes / min

4.94

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.36

50%

Strike defense

44%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael TrizanoLucas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Trizano(7 fights)Lucas Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.9|Blue -16.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael TrizanoTargetLucas Almeida

By target zone

38% acc · 55%

Head

34% acc · 43%

86% acc · 39%

Body

73% acc · 21%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

77% acc · 36%

By position

47% acc · 84%

Distance

45% acc · 72%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

Ground

68% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Trizano rounds

even

Lucas Almeida rounds

Round 1Michael Trizano edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:36

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Lucas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Lucas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 62

Sig Strikes

75 / 152

47.7%

Sig Str %

50%

42 / 74

Total Strikes

94 / 171

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lucas Almeida	21 / 52	26 / 57	0 / 0
1	Michael Trizano	12 / 26	20 / 35	0 / 0
2	Lucas Almeida	30 / 60	44 / 74	0 / 0
2	Michael Trizano	15 / 26	18 / 29	0 / 0
3	Lucas Almeida	24 / 40	24 / 40	0 / 0
3	Michael Trizano	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0

Michael Trizano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6