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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Michael Trizano won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1491

Michael TrizanovsJoe GiannettiUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Trizano won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joe Giannetti wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Michael Trizano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Giannetti at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Trizano has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Trizano has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joe Giannetti (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Trizano

Red Corner

Joe Giannetti

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1496

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Trizano

oldest →

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 19

vs Ludovit Klein · May 21

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Feb 22

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 22

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Nov 22

latest

Joe GiannettiNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael TrizanoMetricJoe Giannetti

3.63

Strikes / min

1.93

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

50%

Strike defense

40%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

1.00

72%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Trizano(7 fights)Joe Giannetti(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.2|Blue -5.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael TrizanoTargetJoe Giannetti

By target zone

35% acc · 21%

Head

7% acc · 10%

39% acc · 17%

Body

65% acc · 38%

96% acc · 62%

Leg

100% acc · 52%

By position

60% acc · 95%

Distance

39% acc · 93%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Trizano rounds

even

Joe Giannetti rounds

Round 1Joe Giannetti edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:13

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 2Michael Trizano edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control4:27

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Trizano edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 71

Sig Strikes

29 / 75

70.7%

Sig Str %

46%

86 / 116

Total Strikes

61 / 108

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

5:40

Ctrl Time

2:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Giannetti	6 / 16	8 / 18	1 / 5	0
1	Michael Trizano	5 / 6	6 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Joe Giannetti	4 / 6	34 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Michael Trizano	6 / 8	49 / 52	0 / 0	0
3	Joe Giannetti	19 / 53	19 / 53	0 / 0	0
3	Michael Trizano	31 / 57	31 / 57	0 / 0	0

Michael Trizano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Joe Giannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights1