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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1527

Michael TrizanovsGrant DawsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:27

Style matchupMichael Trizano: Well-roundedvsGrant Dawson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Grant Dawson threatens submissions; Michael Trizano has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Trizano

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1496

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Trizano

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Nov 18

vs Ludovit Klein · May 21

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Feb 22

KOvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 22

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Nov 22

latest

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael TrizanoMetricGrant Dawson

3.63

Strikes / min

3.14

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

50%

Strike defense

44%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

3.58

72%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael TrizanoGrant Dawson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Trizano(7 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.9|Blue +30.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael TrizanoTargetGrant Dawson

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

28% acc · 33%

88% acc · 35%

Body

71% acc · 44%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

86% acc · 22%

By position

43% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 56%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

85% acc · 41%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Trizano rounds

even

Grant Dawson rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:34

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 41

Sig Strikes

27 / 56

51%

Sig Str %

46.5%

24 / 45

Total Strikes

34 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 10

—

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

4:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Grant Dawson	19 / 37	19 / 37	2 / 8	0
1	Michael Trizano	11 / 26	15 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	8 / 19	15 / 26	1 / 2	1
2	Michael Trizano	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0	0

Michael Trizano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14