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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Page won · U-DEC R3

Elo1545

Elo1552

Michael PagevsSam PattersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Michael Page won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Page wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Michael Page wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Page at -178 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Patterson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Page has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Page has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Page

Red Corner

Sam Patterson

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1545

Elo

1552

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael PageW2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25

latest

Sam PattersonW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24

SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24

KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25

KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael PageMetricSam Patterson

2.28

Strikes / min

2.62

1.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

62%

Strike defense

50%

0.19

TDs / 15 min

0.82

70%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael PageSam Patterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Page(5 fights)Sam Patterson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.4|Blue +6.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael PageTargetSam Patterson

By target zone

45% acc · 63%

Head

8% acc · 33%

50% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 33%

67% acc · 22%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

49% acc · 100%

Distance

17% acc · 83%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Page rounds

even

Sam Patterson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:26

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 55

Sig Strikes

12 / 64

48.3%

Sig Str %

21.7%

33 / 61

Total Strikes

25 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Patterson	4 / 11	4 / 11	0 / 0
1	Michael Page	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0
2	Sam Patterson	2 / 26	5 / 29	0 / 0
2	Michael Page	10 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 0
3	Sam Patterson	6 / 27	16 / 38	0 / 2
3	Michael Page	12 / 19	17 / 24	0 / 0

Michael Page

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7