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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1551

Elo1490

Michael MoralesvsTrevin GilesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupMichael Morales: Well-roundedvsTrevin Giles: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Trevin Giles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Morales has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael Morales has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Morales

Red Corner

Trevin Giles

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1551

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Trevin GilesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Louis Cosce · Sep 22

vs Preston Parsons · Mar 23

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 23

KOvs Carlos Prates · Feb 24

vs Mike Malott · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael MoralesMetricTrevin Giles

5.68

Strikes / min

3.17

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

53%

Strike defense

58%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.07

89%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.42Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael MoralesTrevin Giles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Morales(7 fights)Trevin Giles(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.0|Blue -61.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael MoralesTargetTrevin Giles

By target zone

59% acc · 88%

Head

30% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 46%

Distance

53% acc · 100%

Clinch

78% acc · 54%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Morales rounds

even

Trevin Giles rounds

Round 1Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:05

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 42

Sig Strikes

8 / 15

61%

Sig Str %

53%

28 / 44

Total Strikes

8 / 15

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevin Giles	8 / 15	8 / 15	1 / 4	1
1	Michael Morales	26 / 42	28 / 44	0 / 1	0

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Trevin Giles

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14