← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · U-DEC R3

Elo1551

Elo1522

Michael MoralesvsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Morales: Well-roundedvsJake Matthews: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael Morales has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Morales

Red Corner

Jake Matthews

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1551

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael MoralesMetricJake Matthews

5.68

Strikes / min

3.34

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

53%

Strike defense

60%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.44

89%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.42Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael MoralesJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Morales(7 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.2|Blue -28.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael MoralesTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

29% acc · 54%

Head

30% acc · 58%

71% acc · 14%

Body

71% acc · 30%

79% acc · 32%

Leg

44% acc · 12%

By position

41% acc · 95%

Distance

37% acc · 95%

36% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Morales rounds

even

Jake Matthews rounds

Round 1Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:07

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 208

Sig Strikes

57 / 149

39.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

84 / 208

Total Strikes

57 / 149

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Matthews	14 / 40	14 / 40	0 / 0
1	Michael Morales	26 / 73	26 / 73	0 / 0
2	Jake Matthews	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0
2	Michael Morales	36 / 77	36 / 77	0 / 0
3	Jake Matthews	25 / 63	25 / 63	0 / 1
3	Michael Morales	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 1

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25