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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1551

Elo1475

Michael MoralesvsAdam FugittUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:09

Style matchupMichael Morales: Well-roundedvsAdam Fugitt: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Adam Fugitt has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Michael Morales has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Adam Fugitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Morales

Red Corner

Adam Fugitt

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1551

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Adam FugittL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Feb 23

SUBvs Mike Malott · Jun 23

vs Josh Quinlan · Jun 24

KOvs Islam Dulatov · Jul 25

KOvs Ty Miller · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael MoralesMetricAdam Fugitt

5.68

Strikes / min

4.88

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

53%

Strike defense

51%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.63

89%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.42Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael MoralesAdam Fugitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Morales(7 fights)Adam Fugitt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.5|Blue -75.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael MoralesTargetAdam Fugitt

By target zone

53% acc · 89%

Head

43% acc · 50%

78% acc · 8%

Body

77% acc · 31%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

92% acc · 19%

By position

50% acc · 77%

Distance

59% acc · 91%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Morales rounds

even

Adam Fugitt rounds

Round 1Adam Fugitt edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:04

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 151

Sig Strikes

64 / 113

59%

Sig Str %

55.7%

89 / 157

Total Strikes

70 / 120

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

1:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adam Fugitt	25 / 42	30 / 48	1 / 4
1	Michael Morales	26 / 50	29 / 53	0 / 0
2	Adam Fugitt	32 / 58	33 / 59	0 / 2
2	Michael Morales	32 / 70	34 / 72	0 / 1
3	Adam Fugitt	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 2
3	Michael Morales	25 / 31	26 / 32	0 / 0

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6