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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michael McDonald won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1356

Michael McDonaldvsMasanori KaneharaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:09

Model Prediction: Masanori Kanehara wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Masanori Kanehara at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Michael McDonald

Red Corner

Masanori Kanehara

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1491

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael McDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Masanori Kanehara

oldest →

vs Alex Caceres · Sep 14

vs Rani Yahya · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael McDonaldMetricMasanori Kanehara

2.69

Strikes / min

1.88

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

57%

Strike defense

62%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.44

52%

Takedown defense

63%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael McDonaldMasanori Kanehara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael McDonald(9 fights)Masanori Kanehara(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.6|Blue -134.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +578.0|Blue -578.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael McDonaldTargetMasanori Kanehara

By target zone

40% acc · 80%

Head

67% acc · 27%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 73%

50% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

60% acc · 20%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael McDonald rounds

even

Masanori Kanehara rounds

Round 1Masanori Kanehara edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:22Control

Round 2Masanori Kanehara edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:12

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 13

Sig Strikes

15 / 17

39%

Sig Str %

90.5%

6 / 14

Total Strikes

77 / 81

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

5:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Masanori Kanehara	6 / 6	60 / 62	1 / 1	0
1	Michael McDonald	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Masanori Kanehara	9 / 11	17 / 19	1 / 1	1
2	Michael McDonald	3 / 6	4 / 7	0 / 0	1

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Masanori Kanehara

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3