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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
John Lineker won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Michael McDonald
Elo1492
John Lineker

Michael McDonaldvsJohn LinekerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

John Lineker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:43

Style matchupMichael McDonald: Submission grapplervsJohn Lineker: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(55.7%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Lineker has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael McDonald
Red Corner
VS
John Lineker
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1491
Elo
1492
35
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael McDonald
oldest →
W
KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13
L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13
W
SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16
latest
John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael McDonaldMetricJohn Lineker
2.69
Strikes / min
5.36
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
4.27
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.09
TDs / 15 min
0.56
52%
Takedown defense
67%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1558 vs 1586Strikes25.3 vs 56.8Takedowns0.8 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.88 vs 0.60Form0.7 vs 0.9
Michael McDonaldJohn Lineker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Michael McDonald(9 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael McDonaldTargetJohn Lineker

By target zone

13
45% acc · 93%
Head
18
42% acc · 69%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
7
70% acc · 27%
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 4%

By position

12
44% acc · 86%
Distance
15
39% acc · 58%
2
67% acc · 14%
Clinch
5
56% acc · 19%
0
Ground
6
75% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Michael McDonald rounds
0
even
1
John Lineker rounds
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
14 / 30
Sig Strikes
26 / 55
46%
Sig Str %
47%
14 / 30
Total Strikes
28 / 57
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Lineker26 / 5528 / 570 / 00
1Michael McDonald14 / 3014 / 300 / 00

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16