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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michael McDonald won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1353

Michael McDonaldvsEdwin FigueroaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Edwin Figueroa wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edwin Figueroa at +365 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edwin Figueroa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael McDonald has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael McDonald

Red Corner

Edwin Figueroa

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1491

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael McDonald

oldest →

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Edwin FigueroaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Reinhardt · Aug 11

vs Alex Caceres · Feb 12

KOvs Francisco Rivera · Feb 13

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13

vs Erik Perez · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael McDonaldMetricEdwin Figueroa

2.69

Strikes / min

2.57

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

57%

Strike defense

51%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.20

52%

Takedown defense

37%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael McDonald(9 fights)Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.0|Blue -138.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael McDonaldTargetEdwin Figueroa

By target zone

40% acc · 69%

Head

33% acc · 53%

82% acc · 18%

Body

80% acc · 36%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

83% acc · 11%

By position

46% acc · 84%

Distance

44% acc · 87%

63% acc · 10%

Clinch

20% acc · 2%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael McDonald rounds

even

Edwin Figueroa rounds

Round 1Michael McDonald edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:39

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edwin Figueroa edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:51

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Michael McDonald edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control1:29

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 107

Sig Strikes

45 / 98

45.5%

Sig Str %

61%

58 / 118

Total Strikes

66 / 124

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

3:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edwin Figueroa	27 / 54	28 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Michael McDonald	38 / 76	43 / 84	1 / 1	0
2	Edwin Figueroa	5 / 5	18 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Michael McDonald	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3
3	Edwin Figueroa	13 / 39	20 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Michael McDonald	13 / 31	15 / 34	3 / 3	0

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Edwin Figueroa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6