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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michael McDonald won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1355

Michael McDonaldvsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael McDonald: Submission grapplervsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Michael McDonald wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael McDonald at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Michael McDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael McDonald

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1491

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael McDonald

oldest →

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael McDonaldMetricChris Cariaso

2.69

Strikes / min

3.35

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

57%

Strike defense

61%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.11

52%

Takedown defense

57%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael McDonaldChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael McDonald(9 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.1|Blue -135.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael McDonaldTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

36% acc · 59%

Head

24% acc · 27%

80% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 39%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

88% acc · 34%

By position

46% acc · 94%

Distance

53% acc · 98%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael McDonald rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:58

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:40

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:30

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 67

Sig Strikes

44 / 85

47.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

37 / 72

Total Strikes

55 / 98

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Cariaso	18 / 31	19 / 33	0 / 2
1	Michael McDonald	15 / 31	18 / 34	0 / 0
2	Chris Cariaso	15 / 26	18 / 29	0 / 1
2	Michael McDonald	11 / 24	13 / 26	1 / 1
3	Chris Cariaso	11 / 28	18 / 36	1 / 1
3	Michael McDonald	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 1

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13