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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michael McDonald won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1351

Michael McDonaldvsAlex SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Michael McDonald won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:56

Style matchupMichael McDonald: Submission grapplervsAlex Soto: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michael McDonald wins(84.9%)

Actual result: Michael McDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael McDonald at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael McDonald has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Soto (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael McDonald

Red Corner

Alex Soto

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1491

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael McDonald

oldest →

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Alex Soto

oldest →

vs Francisco Rivera · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael McDonaldMetricAlex Soto

2.69

Strikes / min

2.95

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

5.02

57%

Strike defense

59%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.82

52%

Takedown defense

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap-2.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael McDonaldAlex Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael McDonald(9 fights)Alex Soto(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael McDonaldTargetAlex Soto

By target zone

50% acc · 92%

Head

75% acc · 50%

50% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

38% acc · 50%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

86% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael McDonald rounds

even

Alex Soto rounds

Round 1Michael McDonald edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns2

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 24

Sig Strikes

6 / 8

50%

Sig Str %

75%

12 / 24

Total Strikes

6 / 8

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Soto	6 / 8	6 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Michael McDonald	12 / 24	12 / 24	0 / 0	0

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Alex Soto

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2