← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tom Lawlor won · SUB R2

Elo1353

Elo1490

Michael KuipervsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Tom Lawlor won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:05

Style matchupMichael Kuiper: WrestlervsTom Lawlor: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Michael Kuiper wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Tom Lawlor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Kuiper at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Kuiper has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Kuiper

Red Corner

Tom Lawlor

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Kuiper

oldest →

vs Rafael Natal · Feb 12

KOvs Jared Hamman · Aug 12

SUBvs Bradley Scott · Oct 13

latest

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12

vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12

KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael KuiperMetricTom Lawlor

3.28

Strikes / min

2.50

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

54%

Strike defense

60%

2.30

TDs / 15 min

2.46

79%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael KuiperTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Kuiper(4 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.9|Blue +137.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael KuiperTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

52% acc · 79%

Head

40% acc · 57%

50% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 43%

0% acc

Leg

By position

13% acc · 7%

Distance

25% acc · 29%

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 71%

60% acc · 64%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Kuiper rounds

even

Tom Lawlor rounds

Round 1Michael Kuiper edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control1:31

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 29

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

36.5%

Sig Str %

47.5%

23 / 40

Total Strikes

10 / 16

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 7

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Lawlor	6 / 8	9 / 11	0 / 7	0
1	Michael Kuiper	13 / 22	22 / 33	3 / 3	0
2	Tom Lawlor	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	1
2	Michael Kuiper	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0	0

Michael Kuiper

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8