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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Moises won · SUB R2

Elo1502

Elo1486

Michael JohnsonvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Moises won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:25

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Moises at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Thiago Moises

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1502

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricThiago Moises

4.27

Strikes / min

2.52

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

1.37

81%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.7|Blue -16.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

33% acc · 30%

Head

0% acc

45% acc · 48%

Body

0% acc

86% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

44% acc · 96%

Distance

6% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Thiago Moises rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:18

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 60

Sig Strikes

1 / 16

72%

Sig Str %

28 / 61

Total Strikes

1 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Moises	1 / 16	1 / 16	0 / 2	0
1	Michael Johnson	26 / 59	26 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Thiago Moises	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1
2	Michael Johnson	1 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15