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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Stevie Ray won · M-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1492

Michael JohnsonvsStevie RayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Saturday, October 26, 2019Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsStevie Ray: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Stevie Ray wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stevie Ray at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Stevie Ray

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1502

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Stevie Ray

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Apr 17

KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricStevie Ray

4.27

Strikes / min

3.73

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.75

81%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonStevie Ray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.6|Blue -10.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetStevie Ray

By target zone

34% acc · 59%

Head

38% acc · 69%

73% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

79% acc · 26%

By position

45% acc · 99%

Distance

40% acc · 67%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

61% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Stevie Ray rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 173

Sig Strikes

85 / 188

45%

Sig Str %

44.3%

81 / 176

Total Strikes

104 / 207

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stevie Ray	24 / 55	25 / 56	0 / 1
1	Michael Johnson	27 / 59	27 / 59	0 / 0
2	Stevie Ray	24 / 62	24 / 62	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	37 / 84	37 / 84	0 / 0
3	Stevie Ray	37 / 71	55 / 89	1 / 2
3	Michael Johnson	14 / 30	17 / 33	0 / 0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11