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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1490

Michael JohnsonvsShane RollerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsShane Roller: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at +225 American odds

+$225 profit

$325 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Shane Roller

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1502

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Shane Roller

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11

SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11

vs John Alessio · Jul 12

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricShane Roller

4.27

Strikes / min

2.04

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

58%

Strike defense

60%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

2.46

81%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonShane Roller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.3|Blue -12.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetShane Roller

By target zone

39% acc · 69%

Head

62% acc · 88%

71% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 11%

94% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

38% acc · 66%

Distance

46% acc · 46%

95% acc · 30%

Clinch

83% acc · 9%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

86% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Shane Roller rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:16

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Shane Roller edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:40

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 136

Sig Strikes

56 / 92

44%

Sig Str %

57%

77 / 149

Total Strikes

72 / 110

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 12

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

3:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Roller	8 / 21	10 / 23	0 / 6
1	Michael Johnson	35 / 65	38 / 68	0 / 0
2	Shane Roller	19 / 32	19 / 32	0 / 5
2	Michael Johnson	19 / 39	24 / 44	1 / 1
3	Shane Roller	29 / 39	43 / 55	1 / 1
3	Michael Johnson	10 / 32	15 / 37	0 / 0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6