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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Sass won · SUB R1

Elo1502

Elo1352

Michael JohnsonvsPaul SassUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Paul Sass won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:00

Model Prediction: Paul Sass wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Paul Sass wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Sass at +163 American odds

+$163 profit

$263 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Sass threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Michael Johnson has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Paul Sass

Blue Corner

-173

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+163

(38%)

1502

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Paul SassL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12

SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12

vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricPaul Sass

4.27

Strikes / min

0.53

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

1.90

58%

Strike defense

51%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.53

81%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

7.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonPaul Sass

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Paul Sass(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +150.5|Blue -150.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -253.0|Blue +253.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetPaul Sass

By target zone

26% acc · 75%

Head

13% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 88%

Distance

13% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Paul Sass rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:39

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 26

Sig Strikes

2 / 16

30%

Sig Str %

12%

9 / 27

Total Strikes

2 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Sass	2 / 16	2 / 16	0 / 3	3
1	Michael Johnson	8 / 26	9 / 27	0 / 0	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Paul Sass

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5