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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1502

Elo1481

Michael JohnsonvsOttman AzaitarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:03

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsOttman Azaitar: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ottman Azaitar wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ottman Azaitar at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ottman Azaitar has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ottman Azaitar (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Ottman Azaitar

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1502

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Ottman AzaitarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Teemu Packalen · Sep 19

KOvs Khama Worthy · Sep 20

KOvs Matt Frevola · Nov 22

KOvs Francisco Prado · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricOttman Azaitar

4.27

Strikes / min

4.43

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonOttman Azaitar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Ottman Azaitar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.2|Blue -21.2

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetOttman Azaitar

By target zone

35% acc · 68%

Head

21% acc · 50%

38% acc · 16%

Body

58% acc · 44%

60% acc · 16%

Leg

20% acc · 6%

By position

35% acc · 84%

Distance

27% acc · 94%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

67% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Ottman Azaitar rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:10

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 50

Sig Strikes

16 / 56

38.5%

Sig Str %

29%

19 / 50

Total Strikes

20 / 61

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ottman Azaitar	10 / 37	14 / 42	0 / 0
1	Michael Johnson	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 1
2	Ottman Azaitar	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Ottman Azaitar

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5