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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1496

Michael JohnsonvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Michael Johnson has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1502

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricNate Diaz

4.27

Strikes / min

4.57

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

1.05

81%

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.2|Blue -6.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

24% acc · 43%

Head

135

49% acc · 88%

41% acc · 27%

Body

54% acc · 5%

66% acc · 30%

Leg

79% acc · 7%

By position

103

34% acc · 100%

Distance

148

50% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:03

69Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:16

63Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 301

Sig Strikes

153 / 300

33.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

104 / 303

Total Strikes

157 / 304

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Diaz	21 / 66	21 / 66	0 / 0
1	Michael Johnson	30 / 94	30 / 94	0 / 0
2	Nate Diaz	69 / 124	69 / 124	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	37 / 99	37 / 99	0 / 0
3	Nate Diaz	63 / 110	67 / 114	0 / 0
3	Michael Johnson	36 / 108	37 / 110	1 / 1

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18