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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1490

Michael JohnsonvsMelvin GuillardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · Saturday, March 8, 2014London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsMelvin Guillard: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Melvin Guillard

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1502

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricMelvin Guillard

4.27

Strikes / min

2.96

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

58%

Strike defense

66%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

1.30

81%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonMelvin Guillard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.2|Blue -12.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetMelvin Guillard

By target zone

17% acc · 33%

Head

19% acc · 68%

39% acc · 23%

Body

21% acc · 18%

84% acc · 44%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

31% acc · 75%

Distance

15% acc · 59%

40% acc · 25%

Clinch

62% acc · 36%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Melvin Guillard rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:14

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 146

Sig Strikes

22 / 103

33%

Sig Str %

21%

51 / 153

Total Strikes

22 / 103

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melvin Guillard	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 1
1	Michael Johnson	18 / 43	18 / 44	0 / 2
2	Melvin Guillard	6 / 37	6 / 37	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	16 / 50	17 / 51	0 / 1
3	Melvin Guillard	6 / 28	6 / 28	0 / 0
3	Michael Johnson	14 / 53	16 / 58	1 / 1

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11