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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1502

Elo1541

Michael JohnsonvsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:48

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1502

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricJustin Gaethje

4.27

Strikes / min

6.48

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

58%

Strike defense

51%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.33

81%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.1|Blue +38.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

32% acc · 52%

Head

50% acc · 60%

83% acc · 44%

Body

75% acc · 6%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

86% acc · 35%

By position

44% acc · 86%

Distance

56% acc · 74%

57% acc · 13%

Clinch

75% acc · 26%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns1

Control0:15

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:19

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 200

Sig Strikes

104 / 174

46.5%

Sig Str %

59.5%

91 / 200

Total Strikes

104 / 174

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	50 / 87	50 / 87	0 / 0
1	Michael Johnson	43 / 117	43 / 117	1 / 1
2	Justin Gaethje	54 / 87	54 / 87	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	48 / 83	48 / 83	0 / 2

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15