← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1502

Elo1351

Michael JohnsonvsEdward FaalolotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:42

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Johnson has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Edward Faaloloto

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+430

(19%)

1502

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Edward Faaloloto

oldest →

SUBvs Terry Etim · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricEdward Faaloloto

4.27

Strikes / min

2.28

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

6.25

58%

Strike defense

44%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

1.01

81%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 4.46 — meaningful gap-3.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonEdward Faaloloto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Edward Faaloloto(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +151.3|Blue -151.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetEdward Faaloloto

By target zone

30% acc · 63%

Head

12% acc · 18%

77% acc · 37%

Body

83% acc · 29%

0% acc

Leg

82% acc · 53%

By position

22% acc · 33%

Distance

32% acc · 59%

69% acc · 41%

Clinch

58% acc · 41%

44% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Edward Faaloloto rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:05

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 73

Sig Strikes

17 / 43

36%

Sig Str %

39%

29 / 75

Total Strikes

21 / 47

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edward Faaloloto	17 / 43	21 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Johnson	27 / 73	29 / 75	1 / 1	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Edward Faaloloto

StanceOrthodox

Height—

Reach70.0"

Fights2