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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1506

Michael JohnsonvsDarrius FlowersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsDarrius Flowers: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Darrius Flowers

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1502

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Darrius Flowers

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jul 23

SUBvs Evan Elder · Jul 24

KOvs Lando Vannata · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricDarrius Flowers

4.27

Strikes / min

3.13

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

58%

Strike defense

42%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

1.65

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 2.71 — meaningful gap-2.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonDarrius Flowers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Darrius Flowers(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.8|Blue +3.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetDarrius Flowers

By target zone

34% acc · 26%

Head

32% acc · 30%

69% acc · 59%

Body

75% acc · 27%

69% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 42%

By position

53% acc · 95%

Distance

48% acc · 88%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Darrius Flowers rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:06

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control2:12

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:44

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 112

Sig Strikes

33 / 64

48%

Sig Str %

55%

80 / 138

Total Strikes

52 / 86

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:02

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darrius Flowers	20 / 36	20 / 36	0 / 1
1	Michael Johnson	32 / 60	32 / 60	1 / 2
2	Darrius Flowers	7 / 20	11 / 27	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	27 / 46	40 / 64	2 / 4
3	Darrius Flowers	6 / 8	21 / 23	0 / 0
3	Michael Johnson	2 / 6	8 / 14	1 / 2

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Darrius Flowers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4