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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1502

Elo1356

Michael JohnsonvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:06

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Michael Johnson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1502

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricDanny Castillo

4.27

Strikes / min

2.57

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

58%

Strike defense

62%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

2.95

81%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +146.6|Blue -146.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

32% acc · 47%

Head

45% acc · 82%

50% acc · 12%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

41% acc · 76%

Distance

28% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

Ground

71% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 36

Sig Strikes

17 / 35

42%

Sig Str %

49%

18 / 38

Total Strikes

29 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

4:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	15 / 31	27 / 43	0 / 0	1
1	Michael Johnson	3 / 9	4 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Danny Castillo	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 1	0
2	Michael Johnson	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14