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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1476

Michael JohnsonvsDaniel ZellhuberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsDaniel Zellhuber: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Zellhuber (54.1%).
Daniel Zellhuber has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Daniel Zellhuber

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1502

Elo

1476

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Daniel ZellhuberL2 streak

oldest →

vs Lando Vannata · Apr 23

SUBvs Christos Giagos · Sep 23

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Sep 24

KOvs King Green · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricDaniel Zellhuber

4.27

Strikes / min

5.45

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

6.17

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.14

81%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonDaniel Zellhuber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Daniel Zellhuber(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.3|Blue -26.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetDaniel Zellhuber

By target zone

27% acc · 34%

Head

15% acc · 37%

52% acc · 53%

Body

56% acc · 52%

79% acc · 14%

Leg

67% acc · 12%

By position

41% acc · 96%

Distance

28% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Daniel Zellhuber rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:06

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 195

Sig Strikes

52 / 182

40.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

81 / 196

Total Strikes

52 / 182

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Zellhuber	12 / 46	12 / 46	0 / 0
1	Michael Johnson	24 / 56	24 / 56	0 / 0
2	Daniel Zellhuber	17 / 66	17 / 66	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	30 / 77	31 / 78	0 / 0
3	Daniel Zellhuber	23 / 70	23 / 70	0 / 0
3	Michael Johnson	26 / 62	26 / 62	0 / 1

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Daniel Zellhuber

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7