← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC

Elo1502

Elo1490

Michael JohnsonvsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Saturday, February 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsClay Guida: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1502

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricClay Guida

4.27

Strikes / min

2.63

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

58%

Strike defense

61%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

3.10

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.0|Blue -12.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetClay Guida

By target zone

46% acc · 90%

Head

44% acc · 63%

42% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 24%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

41% acc · 81%

Distance

44% acc · 65%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:33

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:04

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:26

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 126

Sig Strikes

49 / 89

45.3%

Sig Str %

50.7%

70 / 138

Total Strikes

65 / 107

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

6:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Guida	29 / 44	31 / 46	1 / 2	0
1	Michael Johnson	31 / 66	32 / 67	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Guida	13 / 24	21 / 32	1 / 4	0
2	Michael Johnson	14 / 27	18 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Guida	7 / 21	13 / 29	1 / 1	1
3	Michael Johnson	13 / 33	20 / 40	0 / 0	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27